In recent years, financial forecasting models have served as the predominant method for industry professionals, through which, the latter can apply their financial knowledge. After the recent economic crisis, there has been a constantly increasing need for experienced professionals in building forecasting models, since enterprises are required to predict different scenarios about the future, so that they can better adapt to an unstable and uncertain environment. This practical seminar guides the participants through building their own models, by using various forecasting techniques, in order to monitor specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Nowadays, perhaps the most important performance indicator for enterprises is future cash flows, and strong emphasis is placed on forecasting them, and more specifically, their duration, size, and increase, as well as the uncertainty that characterizes them.

. GENERATING & Building FINANCIAL MODELS

Introduction

Key principles

• The 4 steps of developing a financial model,
• Structural characteristics of a good model
• Forecast generating mechanism
• Forecasting variables

Preparing a financial model

• Defining the Model
• Configuration of key model parameters & hypotheses
• Balancing the Balance Sheet: The Debt or Cash Plug
• Calculating interest by using Circular References of Excel

Forecasting the key figures of the Profit and Loss Account and the Balance Sheet

• Forecasting techniques (linear regression, non-linear methods).
• Revenues, expenditure, investments, depreciation and amortization, borrowings.
• Indirectly building the Cash Flow Statement

Testing the model

• Sources of errors

CASE STUDY

• Developing a financial model to forecast cash flows

2. UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS
   
   Finding out the most critical parameters of a model by using Tornado Charts

• Using aids off-the-shelf or/and building Tornado Charts

Sensitivity analysis

• Using one-dimensional and two-dimensional tables

Scenario Analysis (by using Excel Scenario Manager)

• Developing at least three scenarios

Monte Carlo simulation - (Required, in order to answer questions such as: "What is the probability of the company's borrowing exceeding €15m by the end of this year?")

• Probability Distributions of the most critical variables
• Building bar charts (Frequency distribution charts)

CASE STUDY

• Building sensitivity tables and Scenarios in the model of the Case Study of the first section

3. Evaluation Methods 
   
   

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method

• Fundamental Principles
• Explicit forecast period
• Discounting Future Cash Flows
• Discount Rate
  1. Weighted Average Capital Cost (WACC)
  2. Cost of Equity - CAPM method
  3. The concept of the marginal investor
  4. Beta (b) coefficient

• Terminal Value
  1. Perpetuity/Gordon Growth Model
  2. Exit multiple

• You will become familiar with building the three financial statements (Profit and Loss Account, Statement of Financial Position, and Cash Flow Statement) and interlinking them.
• You will understand the evaluation method of companies and learn the relevant multipliers and (evaluation) models.
• You will become familiar with uncertainty management methods by building various scenarios about the future.
• You will improve the ability to make financial decisions
• You will learn how to evaluate the parameters that are more important for specific financial key performance indicators (KPIs) and make remedial decisions to improve them.